Sweeping Demographic Changes! Really?

As the U.S. Census figures from 2010 are rolled out (as you know, not all data is released at the same time), the Media has chosen to look at what they consider to be ground shaking implications of some factors but choose to ignore more mundane facts.

One big headline grabber has been the rise of Hispanics in the U.S. Yes, in 20 years, we have gained a large number of Hispanics, a large percentage have come in via illegal immigration. But the long-term impact of this increase may be lost on the Media. Among the most important upside implications of this data is that we are not going to be Europe any time soon. In other words, the U.S. is continuing to have a net increase in population. Those countries with a "Birth Dearth" like Japan and Italy are going to have to dramatically change almost everything in their "social contracts."

The Media has made much about the dramatic changes in the nuclear family. True, marriages are down as are children born to wedded couples. But there is a difference between a single woman and a woman alone. The majority of out-of-wedlock births are still to households with a man and a woman living together. Yes, the percentages of all household variations outside of the nuclear family are up but they are not as many as one would imagine from the headlines. As an example, much has been said about homosexual couples raising children. Keep in mind that even if this figure were to double, it is not as significant as one might expect. Homosexuals make up about 6% of our population (some figures are as low as 3% while others claim 9%). If that is true, figures show that about 10% of the homosexual households having children, that represents 0.6% of all households in America. The figure is probably less than 1/2 of 1%.

More significant is the data on where people are moving. Americans do not want to live in rural areas. They are heading for the suburbs in greater numbers. The South and West are still getting the vast majority of new-move-ins (with the exception of the West Coastal States).

Another BIG trend is the "delay in launching" of young adults. A very large number and percentage of 30 somethings are moving home. Demographers believe that this is a trend that could reverse itself in less than 5 years.

Will New York State Ever Recover?

As we get doctors asking questions about some states in which they want to practice, we are regularly queried about the viability of New York State.

Based upon the data we have, New York SHOULD do well over the next five years due to demographic trends but may not due to artificial factors such as taxes. It seems that people want to live in New York, including in its upper-state. From our observations, there are even employers who want to open up in Troy, Albany, and Schenectady but are having a tough time due to the regulation mentality that is coming from "The City."

The state is heavily unionized and shows little sign of changing. We watch carefully the proposals of Governor Cuomo who seems to SAY the right things about increasing employment and reducing regulation. We want to see if his proposals are picked up in Albany and made into law. Of all the benefits that New York has, one of the best things that can be said is, "At least it isn't New England!" What is meant by that is a tendency for businesses and affluent people to move out of increasingly hostile states but to stay within the region. As an aside, we think that there may yet be several corporations that pick up and move from Rhode Island in the next two years to relocated either in New York or New Jersey.

But the real story seems to be the potential that we see in New Jersey (particularly in northern New Jersey) as individuals, businesses, and some large employers take a second look at a state that has decided it WANTS to increase its tax rolls without raising taxes and increasing regulation.

So, to answer the question, about New York State's future, we have to look to the governor and make our recommendations on what he does through 2011. The state's future growth and potential lie in the balance.

Why REAL Demographers Matter

Most people don't see the connection between the release of the 2010 Census Data and the change that they Federal Government made in what information they collected. And trying to stay out of the tall weeds of techno-speak, I thought it might be a good idea to let you know what is happening.

The amount of data collected from each intake by the Census Bureau was far less than normal. Information on population, household size, and such was not changed. But when it comes to home values, household income, and much more, vendors are having to use OTHER sources of information. For the first time, we are going to be relying more heavily upon the American Community Survey (ACS) for data and adding the Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) to our inputs.

What this means is that if you have someone who does not know the difference between the data, the sample sizes, regional variations, and implications for projections are going to get some really screwy results. This will be especially true when looking for demographic trend-lines.

Yeah, I hear it every day, "But I can get demographic data from the web for free. Why should I pay for it?"

It is certainly true that you can get data from the web for nothing. But when it comes to interpreting that data accurately, you are putting your key practice decisions at risk unless you are dealing with a demographer who knows what the changes MEAN. The challenge that we in the industry are facing has to do with sample sizes and statistical reliability on very LOCAL data. But do not worry. We are going to take the care and the caution you have come to expect in order to deliver to you a demographic report that will tell you what you need to know. After all, our standard is to give you the same advise WE would want if it were OUR money at risk.

The Dangers of Vague

I am not sure why it happens so often that well-educated, thoughtful professionals will come to me, asking for advise on what region of the U.S. will be best for them to consider setting up practice. Don't get me wrong! Our JOB is to help doctors in their decision making. But what is troubling is how often they will come to use with NO thought regarding their preferences.

"I can go ANYWHERE! Just show me a place with serious demand and a chance to get into profitable practice and I will GO for it!!"

Right.

In EVERY CASE I will mention a location and they will respond, "Well, I really don't want to go THERE!!!!"

I sometimes think that what they want me to do is to read their mind and tell them what they already know they want. But as my psychic abilities have been greatly limited recently, it isn't going to happen.

If you want to get the best results on advise on where to put a practice, you have to be specific in some degree. Either you have to know what you want in terms of a particular type of practice area (in terms of the demographic character of the population, weather, region of the U.S., proximity to the in-laws, etc.) or in terms of the type of practice you want that can be defined by some specific population.

It may sound odd to SOME folks, but we have found that the more specific you can be in telling us just exactly what you want, the better we can be in telling you where to go.

Once again, I plead with you to use our little program called "Where to Put a Practice, Part I" to get started. It is free. Go to the following link for more information: www.DoctorDemographics.com and to Speeches by Scott McDonald.

Kansas City, Kansas - Serious Opportunities

Kansas City, KS sits across the River from Kansas City, MO. It has had a rough history of steel works that have closed down. It is a Rustybelt Community long given up for dead. Well, it isn't going to be dead for long.

Google has announced that it is setting up a new headquarters in little. Blue Collar, Kansas City, KS. General Motors is still the largest, private employer in town and it is not soon that the City will shake off the "lower than average Median Income" image that has plagued it. Still, the new Village West development with more than 110 businesses, lots of new housing, and some strong local employment is making such a rapid recovery that it has caught the eye of demographers and business planners from all over.

When we see a community that is willing to keep taxes low, and welcomes major employers, we have to say that it is a good indication of future success. We believe that many existing practices will get a shot in the arm and we also believe that there is room for new potential start-ups in the next two years.

It is worth checking out.

The Lie of Race

Much has been made of the Sudeep Reddy article in the Mach 25, 2011 Wall Street Journal article entitled “Latinos Fuel Growth in Decade.” While factually true, it is also fundamentally misleading. There is an inherent falsehood that supersedes any honest discussion of race in America: How we define “race.”

A simple illustration is our President. Barak Obama is not our first Black President. He is our first half-Black President. It is well understood that his mother was White. The lie, simply put, is that anyone with any ancestor who was Black is considered by the Census Bureau to be 100% Black. It is this same logic that suggests that any children born to an interracial couple where one of the ancestors is Black is, well, Black. Tiger Woods is lauded as being a great Black athlete. It is undeniable that his is a great athlete. It is arguable that is 25% Black racial background really makes him Black. Is it any wonder that the “Black” population in the U.S. appears to be growing? True, people with Black ancestry may be increasing but it is wrong to suggest that this is a major shift in the population.

The lie is even more pervasive when it comes to Hispanics. All demographers acknowledge that Hispanic is not a Race. It is a Cultural Identification. All Hispanics are a mixture of one degree of another between other races. Hence, there are Asian Hispanics (4.7%) and Black Hispanics (12.2% both based on figures in the article). But to hear the media expounding on what it means, there is an assumption that Hispanic means Mexican. There is also the notion that they are a monolithic population with a particular political point of view rather than a more realistic assessment that there is variety of thought and self-identification in the population.

In terms of how the U.S. Census Bureau recognizes “Hispanic” as anyone who claims to be Hispanic. The self-proclamation is enough. Hence, knowledge of Spanish is not required. Neither is any kind of racial or country of origin. For those of us who have lived and worked in Mexico or any other “Hispanic” country, we know first hand the divisions within those societies are based upon how much “Indian” blood one has. Those who claim no Indian blood tend to be regarded as belonging to an upper class. Indians in much of the Americas represent the lowest class. But to come to America means that you are now, for the first time, part of a larger group that some believe has a political agenda, cultural imperative, and ethnic identity. There they are divided; here there are suddenly united.

So, what do the families who have lived in Los Angeles since the 1890s have in common with the newly arrived illegal aliens of 2011 in Tucson? Not very much! And to suggest they do is to promote a lie that only furthers the political aims of a race-based “club.”

What is so great about Sioux Falls, SD?

It isn't the weather. It isn't the skiing. It isn't the "culture."

This community Lincoln County (and Minnehaha County) has had the fastest and most significant job growth in the last three years. Since 2000 jobs have increased by 67%. It is the corporate headquarters of Citibank and Wells Fargo Bank along with a string of other financial institutions and nation-wide businesses. The John Morrell meat packing plant is located here. In fact, it has the lowest unemployment in the United States.

So, what does this remote location have the you might want to consider when you are picking a place to practice?

For one thing, the politicians in this area knew that if they didn't do something to change the calculations on how they competed to get employment, this was going to be a backwater community forever. So, knowing they had a disadvantage or two (or ten), they decided to make this community friendlier to businesses than any other. Corporate taxes are non-existent. Local financing for businesses is exceptionally easy. The cost of living is so low that even middle-income managers in other communities can come here and buy a huge home in a great neighborhood. Personal income taxes and property taxes are the envy of most American cities.

In short, this community has done everything it can to show employers it wants to have them set up shop here. They are making it easy for their employees to live here. The retail situation is not a reason by itself to move to a community but without regional shopping centers like the Empire Mall, it could be more challenging.

We have been saying that Chicago is doing just about everything it can to tell businesses that they are not wanted, that employees are not welcome, and that consumers should look elsewhere to buy. In the end, we have to believe that even little Sioux Falls may have a greater leadership role in the next 100 years in business than Chicago. What a shame! We love that Windy City.