WAKE UP!: Trends That Are Changing Practice

The U.S. Census is a gold mine into the minds of Americans. These trends are very likely going to touch every practice and every region in the U.S.

1. Aging Trends
It may surprise you but the average head of household in the U.S. is almost 50 years old. But that is nothing when we compare the fact that 80% of the growth in the number of households in the next five years will be with households headed by 55+ year olds. For the rest, most new households will be headed by 25 to 34 year olds. For those 35 to 54 (the ones with the money), there is likely to be almost no growth but their economic impact will actually grow more than their numbers.

Those between 35 and 54 have the highest number of dual-earners and account for nearly half of U.S. Consumer Spending. This age group is going to shrink over the next five years (due to aging). As they move into the older group, for the first time in history, we are seeing those 55 to 64 really guiding the consumer patters for the rest of the U.S. This is the great hope of the economy. With more than $10,600 more in Per Capita disposable income than any other group, doctors had better think about serves that these healthy but older adults want.

2. Risk Aversion
Something all of a sudden happens when you realize you have something to lose for the first time. You don't want to lose it. We strongly recommend consideration of promoting practices and services based upon the desire of patients to hang on to what they have. Prevention is a strong selling point to consumers who still feel healthy and have money and don't want to lose either.

3. Widening Demographic Gulf in Attitudes and Regions
We have long believed that what works for a practice in Denver may have no relationship for a practice in Atlanta. Based upon the demographic and consumer attitude research we are reading, that is becoming TRUER and TRUER.

Americans have always had divisions in opinion and assumption. This is nothing really new. However, as people age, there is an understanding among social scientists that these attitudes are become calcified. And these consumers do NOT want someone to preach at them that they are "stogy" of "close-minded." Senator Obama has (at this writing) hit a wall in his poll numbers as he tries to convince older Americans that they have been wrong for all these years. There is something to be said for the safe and the familiar.

The divisions in Americans can be tracked by their demographics as well. As we look at different regions, the differences can be quite stark. In the Northeast, for example, the population is significantly older, more white and has fewer children. The West is younger and more diverse. Two-thirds of recent immigrants have settled in the South or West. We will make a prediction that the Media Bigwigs (who are primarily products of New York and Washington, DC) will claim shock at how electoral trends will turn during the next two cycles. It is more than a difference in party allegiance. What will surprise them is just how out of sync they will be with those outside of their region.

The Northeast has one fifth of the nation's elderly. The six New England states are among the 10 oldest states for median age. In many towns in New England, only one in five households has a child in the home. The national average is one in three. For health care practitioners who treat children, the practice areas must be significantly larger than in the west.

The implications for practices is this: we have to devise rules that are more regional rather than national in determining the ideal size of a patient base, referral base, cost of living, office overhead, and revenues. The differences we are finding between regions are growing larger, not smaller. There is an ancillary trend of migration and immigration we will discuss in a future post.