Friday, August 12, 2011

Sweeping Demographic Changes! Really?

As the U.S. Census figures from 2010 are rolled out (as you know, not all data is released at the same time), the Media has chosen to look at what they consider to be ground shaking implications of some factors but choose to ignore more mundane facts.

One big headline grabber has been the rise of Hispanics in the U.S. Yes, in 20 years, we have gained a large number of Hispanics, a large percentage have come in via illegal immigration. But the long-term impact of this increase may be lost on the Media. Among the most important upside implications of this data is that we are not going to be Europe any time soon. In other words, the U.S. is continuing to have a net increase in population. Those countries with a "Birth Dearth" like Japan and Italy are going to have to dramatically change almost everything in their "social contracts."

The Media has made much about the dramatic changes in the nuclear family. True, marriages are down as are children born to wedded couples. But there is a difference between a single woman and a woman alone. The majority of out-of-wedlock births are still to households with a man and a woman living together. Yes, the percentages of all household variations outside of the nuclear family are up but they are not as many as one would imagine from the headlines. As an example, much has been said about homosexual couples raising children. Keep in mind that even if this figure were to double, it is not as significant as one might expect. Homosexuals make up about 6% of our population (some figures are as low as 3% while others claim 9%). If that is true, figures show that about 10% of the homosexual households having children, that represents 0.6% of all households in America. The figure is probably less than 1/2 of 1%.

More significant is the data on where people are moving. Americans do not want to live in rural areas. They are heading for the suburbs in greater numbers. The South and West are still getting the vast majority of new-move-ins (with the exception of the West Coastal States).

Another BIG trend is the "delay in launching" of young adults. A very large number and percentage of 30 somethings are moving home. Demographers believe that this is a trend that could reverse itself in less than 5 years.

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